The Group Stage is over, the dust has settled and now we can see how things are shaping up.
Some dust made it through, as usual, but we’d want it no other way.
There are several teams just lucky to still be in, and a couple good teams that aren’t playing well yet.
I’m looking forward to the Germany/Sweden match. I’m not convinced the Germans actually have a defense yet, but I’m keeping an open mind. Whatever happens, I don’t see either team beating Argentina, who will get past Mexico. The Argentines have been the class of the tournament so far, and their match against Italy in the semis will be fabulous.
Unless Italy implodes, they get past Australia without breaking a sweat. I don’t care who is coaching Oz, everyone knows what the Italians are going to do and what they need to do to stop them. Doing it is another matter. Only Italy beats Italy on this side of the bracket. The Swiss and Ukraines are fortunate to be there. One will be lucky to move on. Matters little. The Italians beat either of them in a walk. Whoever it is, look for them to try the US method, and draw Italy into an alley fight. It won’t work this time.
It’ll just be a privilege to witness the Italy/Argentina match. I’d hate to call it, but if pressed I’ll stick with the Italians to get through. Mainly, hoping the Argentines peaked too soon, and the match being in Europe, the reasons. The teams are about even.
On the other side. England probably finds a way to get past Ecuador, but are finished after that. Portugal/Holland should be a great match and whoever makes it out of that, outscores England in the quarters. I’ll pick Portugal over The Netherlands, but only by a whisker.
Brazil could put their ‘C’ team out against Ghana and go through.
The Spain/France match is interesting. Somebody has to win. France should, but Spain will. Then the Spaniards will give Brazil its first real match of the tournament. I think Spain has a chance to steal that one. It’s been a bit too easy for Brazil.
That leaves Spain and Portugal battling it out for the right to play Italy in the final. That’ll be another great match. Too close to call. Natural rivals. Perfect. I’ll go with Portugal to nick it from Spain, probably with penalty kicks.
The party will be in Roma on July 9th, after Luca Toni’s hat trick. Italy wins in a classic final, and the champagne washes out some of the bad taste from the match fixing scandal back home.
Or not. Whatever happens, it’s going to be brilliant. Let’s enjoy the show.
The first World Cup that I followed was the 1982 tournament. As an Italian American I was rooting for Italy and I recall so clearly that Italia in 82 barely got through round one…. They tied Cameroon for second place in group with 3 points and they only went through to the next round on some obscure tie breaker. Everyone was writing them off. The Italian team then caught fire and went on to win the entire tournament. I point this out to underline that World Cup history shows us time and again that round one performance is only one of many factors to consider in prognosticating during the elimination rounds.
I agree that Italy have as much talent as anyone else but if physical talent was the only factor to consider we could leave match predictions to computers. Human factors are to be assessed here too. In spite of the best efforts of Lippi, the Italian squad today is full of its normal share of controversy. In round one the only good game Italy played was against Ghana. Their bench had to save them against the old and worn out Czech Republic and let’s not forget that Italia struggled against the underachieving Americans. I watch the Italians all year long and bad performances are as common as good ones with this squad so it while might be true that Italy will have to have a lapse for someone to beat them it is also true that lapses are practically part of this team’s genetic code, and we all know that bad habits are hard to break. Italy has a bad habit of forgetting to show up for games and like many Italians I believe against all odds the Italians will find a way to screw it up, losing either in round 2 against the Aussies or in the quarters against Ukrainia. Now that is a prediction!
Depth and flexibility are points on which the English squad stand out and these factors are so important to winning the World Cup. England is as deep as any squad in this tourney and depth is always a factor in the elimination round as coaches shape their team to a winning strategy based on the opponent they must face. Even with Michael Owen out, Erickson has countless weapons and numerous ways to score at his disposal. Erickson almost always beats the teams he should beat, so notwithstanding a miracle Ecuadors courageous run is over.
Holland reminds me of the Cleveland Indians of the 1990s. The core of this group won the Europe under 21 tourney a few years back. This team is loaded with stars of the future and right now, they seem to be oblivious to pressure. I watched the entire game Holland played against Argentina and in case nobody noticed, Holland’s youngsters held the mighty Argentina machine scoreless. I think Holland will continue their remarkable run and beat Portugal. However against England, like the Indians of the 90’s who never won it all, Holland’s inexperience will finally cost them and they will lose to the English side.
France against Spain….. Spain is playing very well but history tells us that Spain is due for their traditional choke job. France is playing badly now so the question is can France in 2006 be the Italia of 1982 by following a bad round one with a great performance in the elimination rounds. I really like this Spanish team so I am going to predict that Spain will keep it up and beat France but I think France will play a great game against Spain, barely losing.
Brasil did not impress me so far although at this point they are rested and deep. However their forwards are playing poorly. Shots on goal will not be so easy for Brasil to get in the elimination round as they won’t be playing Japan but Brasil will get past Ghana who will play without Essien. The great European sides always play the odds and work very hard to hold numerical advantage defending the scoring area. That has the effect of limiting shots on goal so Brasil won’t be ringing up 3 or 4 goals in a game against Spain or France. I predict a Brasilian lapse or two will let Spain through to face England in the semis.
Spain will fight to the death against England but in the end, player for player England have a better team and I think at the semi finals, Spain’s players will finally start to feel the burden of their long history of choking and losing in the World Cup. So I see England as one of the teams heading into the finals.
As I predicted a month ago in the pages of Bullz.eye, the Germany vs. Argentina match will be the match of the tournament. That of course means I believe the Germans will beat Sweden and Argentina will handle Mexico. Then these two teams will play a scintillating match that will be the one game absolutely not to miss of this entire tourney. I think Argentina will advance but the game is a toss up. It will be a CLASSIC.
Argentina will face whoever upsets Italia in the semis and then move onto the finals where we will have a classic match up of England vs. Argentina. My view is that with Argentina worn down from the Germany match, England will have a slight advantage. Can they make the most of it? Yes, I believe that the Queen’s squad will beat Argentina in 2006 as they did in 2002 in a classic match and they will carry home the World Cup for the first time since 1966.
Now let the games begin. It should be a brilliant elimination round!
Wow. It’s cool to see totally different predictions. The sweet 16 will be awesome.
I love Mike’s prediction because I want the Italians to win it. I also love what I see from this team. They haven’t been perfect, but they have been playing to win. The embarassment against the US was good for them on many levels. The De Rossi incident was terrible, but the italians played with class after that terrible foul, constantly patting the Americans on the back after tough fouls. I think they were embarassed by what he did.
Like Mike said, I think they will be prepared for teams that try the physical approach and they will not be goaded into stupid fouls again. The have a pretty easy raod if they can manage not to blow it, and then they should have an epic match against Germany or Argentina.
The other side is just impossible. You have Brazil, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, France etc. Wheover makes it out of that side deserves real credit.
I’m looking forward to all of it.
I hope you’re right. If I went with my heart, I’d have said much the same.
Everything you said about Italy is spot on. Whoever wins the Cup is going to be on a razor’s edge the whole time. It’s going to take luck, and playing well at just the right time. I think the Italians are capable of holding it together for 4 more games.
I’m probably too close to the England team. Like you with Italy, I see every flaw and weakness, and just wait for it to start unravelling. England relies on an absolute nothing up front, in Peter Crouch. Throwing Rooney up there alone instead, appears to be an option now, but there still has to be fitness concerns with him. There’s no way he’s 100%– is 75 or so good enough? I don’t know. I suspect not.
Their midfield is solid and loaded with offensive minded players–at least on their club teams. Gerrard and Lampard seem to spend most of their time staying out of one another’s way internationally. They have always been rubbish together, it’s hard to imagine a sudden transformation after all this time. Beckham’s main talent these days is set plays. He might still be capable of threading in a nice pass or two–if he had someone to pass it to, but he may as well not be on the pitch during the run of play most of the time.
They would need an enormous amount of good fortune to win this thing. They have a very difficult time ever comfortably beating anyone. You need to cruise through the easy ones, and save the struggles for the tough matches. Every match for England seems tough.
I was thinking about that exact point, in Italy there is nothing but critical words for the team, even when they win. I am in the middle of that so it has to sway me a bit.
In the end, I will be celebrating with the rest of the fair weather fans here if the Azzurri win. And who knows, maybe this will be the first year in ages that a Cinderella takes it all.
One thing I am convinced of is that no matter what this will be a really really great tourney from here on out.
Maybe both of you will be half right and half wrong and we’ll see Italy and England in the final. Now that would be cool.